7 signs to Valley’s housing market recovery

If you are a real estate investor who owns property in Arizona, I think that you will find this interesting…

“7 signs to Valley’s housing market recovery”

How close is the Valley’s housing market to rebounding?

National housing analyst Tim Sullivan of the Sullivan Group has put together a seven-point test to track the market’s recovery.

Check out metropolitan Phoenix’s report card.

1. The number of resales on the market falls below a 7-month supply.

The Valley has 55,000 existing homes for sale, a 14-month supply.

2. Home sales need to stop slowing.

Resales rebounded slightly in October, according to the realty studies group at Arizona State University. New home sales have held steady since summer, according to RL Brown’s Phoenix housing Market Letter report.

3. New home permits must fall.

Permits fell in September to their lowest level in 15 years. October’s numbers were similar.

4. Mortgage purchase applications increase.

Not yet.

5. Thirty-year mortgage rates drop to 6 percent.

The average 30-year rate is 6.10 this week, according to Freddie Mac. Pretty close.

6. Affordability improves dramatically.
The median Valley home price fell to $242,000, its lowest level since 2005. That’s definitely an improvement for fledging home buyers, though most homeowners are still cringing at the drop.

7. At least one major homebuilder goes away.
This hasn’t happened yet, though market watchers say some builders are about to consolidate.

So far the Valley has at least four out of the seven going for it. Sullivan said the market’s turnaround could start late next year.

Cynthia Leggitt
Phoenix, AZ
NARREIA Advisor
www.NARREIA.com